09 gennaio 2009
«The re-pricing that has been a recent feature of Europe Middle East and
Africa (EMEA) markets continued in the fourth quarter of 2008. Yields in the
office, retail and industrial sectors have all now risen 100 basis points or
more since mid-2007. The scale of the re-pricing could help to close the gap
between buyer and seller pricing expectations and is likely to present
attractive buying opportunities for equity-rich investors targeting the
commercial real estate market.
Prime office yields continue to be particularly affected by the turmoil in
the debt and investment markets and were driven up by 41 basis points in the
fourth quarter, according to The CB Richard Ellis EU-15 office yield index.
As a result, they are now nearly 100 basis points higher than a year ago.
Forty-two of the 47 locations surveyed saw upward yield movements with the
largest rises occurring in Kiev and Dublin. A number of other key markets -
including Paris, Brussels, Moscow, Vienna and the City of London - saw
increases of over 50 bps in the quarter.
The fourth quarter also witnessed yield increases in both the retail and
industrial sectors. The CB Richard Ellis retail yield index for the EU-15
area rose by 31 basis points in the quarter, and as a result is 78 basis
points higher than the fourth quarter 2007. In the industrial sector, the CB
Richard Ellis industrial yield index for the EU-15 area rose by 35 basis
points in the fourth quarter, and is almost 100 basis points higher than
this time last year.
Richard Holberton, Director CB Richard Ellis EMEA Research and Consulting,
said: "The combined effects of the various upheavals in financial markets in
the fourth quarter of last year, and the weakening economic outlook, are
clearly evident in the near-universal rise in yields. In addition to reduced
liquidity, pricing is increasingly reflecting the prospect of weaker
occupier demand, and hence lower income growth potential in many locations.
However, with yields in the three main commercial sectors now having risen
by 100 basis points or more since mid-2007, the scale of re-pricing is also
likely to present attractive buying opportunities for equity investors in
2009."
The weakening rental outlook for the year ahead is clearly one of the
factors influencing yield movements. Inevitably there are growing
indications of downward pressure on rents in a number of countries as the
continued financial uncertainty reduces confidence in the occupier markets.
Despite this, the annual rental growth rates for the office and retail
sectors remained in positive territory in the fourth quarter with the
industrial sector showing a slight decline.
The CB Richard Ellis office rent index for the EU-15 area fell by 2% in the
quarter, although the year-on-year rate of growth remains marginally
positive at 0.4%. Two of the 47 locations in the survey saw increases in the
level of prime office rents, 19 declined and 26 remained unchanged. The
largest declines were recorded in Kiev down by 29.4% to €526 per sq m per
annum, and Tel Aviv down 28.5% to €219 per sq m per annum. Other major
cities including Moscow, Warsaw and London’s West End market also saw double
–digit declines in the quarter.
Despite negative sentiment from the consumer sector, prime retail rents
across EMEA remained broadly stable in the quarter. The CB Richard Ellis
retail rent index for the EU-15 area rose by 0.3 % in the quarter, taking
the year-on-year growth rate to 2.8%. Two (Lyon and Vienna) of the 40
locations surveyed saw increases in the level of prime retail rents, seven
declined and 31 remained unchanged.
Rents in the industrial sector also remained broadly stable. The CB Richard
Ellis industrial rent index fell by 0.4% in the quarter, leaving the index
1.3% lower in year-on-year terms. Six of the 40 locations surveyed saw
increases in the level of prime rent, seven declined and 27 remained
unchanged. The largest rises occurred in Edinburgh with rents up 7.4% to
€83.06 per sq m per annum and Warsaw up 6.7% to €76.80 per sq m per annum.
Richard Holberton continued: "While the annual growth rates for the office
and retail sectors remain positive there is a growing incidence of actual
rental declines as occupier confidence continues to weaken. This reflects
widespread occupier caution stemming from the general economic uncertainty."
» (CS della Società)
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