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"An extra evaluation of the King Sturge Real Estate Economy index suggests that the 1,000 polled market players show a high level of appreciation for their human capital in the annual cycle, and are planning for modest job cuts only. While the staff development still stood at 132.6 index points in February 2008 – meaning that the majority of enterprises were expecting to pursue an expansive human resource strategy – this estimate lost 50.8 points in the course of the year, dropping down to 81.8 points by January 2009. Yet the polled panel participants do not expect to pursue a consolidating HR policy except under duress.
“A lot of decision makers obviously favour a sustainable HR strategy over short-term cost cuts,“ observed Sascha Hettrich, Managing Partner of King Sturge Deutschland. According to Hettrich, it is yet another aspect illustrating not only that real estate represents a comparatively safe asset class, but that the real estate industry is also an essential player in the national economy that provides comparatively safe jobs. He went on to say: “By implication, it also makes it safe to say that the real estate business definitely deserves more attention from the political arena.”
The polled real estate experts quoted higher prospects for the human resource development than they did for sales and economic situation. Sales expectations fell by 71 points, from 150.4 index points in January 2008 down to 79.4 points in January 2009. In fact, the assessment of the national economy suggests that the first recessive tendencies manifested themselves as early as February of last year. At 95.5 points, the February 2008 rating already undercut the threshold value of 100, implying a negative outlook. In the course of the year, the assessment of the economic development plummeted by 83.3 points down to 12.2 in January 2009. Having hit rock bottom in November 2008 (7.3 points), the downward speed of the economic expectation has slowed since. In January 2009, the figure for projected sales registered a slight upward movement. Whether the climatic prospects will continue to brighten remains to be seen.
The relatively low level of fluctuation in staff development projections reflects the stability of human resource structures. The estimation of the development of the human capital during the covered period translated into 16 volatility points, whereas sales expectations registered 24 volatility points. This suggests that in the long run, experienced, well networked real estate experts count for more than short-term cost-cutting effects.
Hettrich explains that “In the long run, the demographic changes will precipitate a shortage in skilled professionals.” He added that the industry has already started preparing itself for the situation by launching superb training and qualification systems. He feels the industry should by all means persist in these efforts and continue to adequately sponsor them.
“After all, well-trained and experienced staff are decisive for success in terms of the intensifying dynamics, internationalism, and complexity of the real estate industry, and while this applies to any single business, it ultimately goes for the business location of Germany as whole,” thus the forecast ventured by Sascha Hettrich.
About the King Sturge Real Estate Economy Index
Seeing itself in relation to the ifo business climate index, the ZEW economic expectations index, and the GfK consumer climate index, the King Sturge Real Estate Economy index is compiled monthly on the basis of two components, namely current business situation and current expectations. Whereas the Real Estate Climate indicates economic turning points in the real estate business, the Real Estate Economy – which reflects monthly macroeconomic stats such as the DAX, the ifo business climate index, the DIMAX, and the prime interest rates – permits conclusions regarding the current situation within the macroeconomic development context. On the website www.immokonjunktur.de, the panel members are able to state their opinions on the demand among investors and occupants, on rent rates and purchase prices, as well as on macroeconomic parameters.
About King Sturge
King Sturge counts among Europe’s largest independent, owner-operated real estate consultancies. More than 3,800 staff in 100 branch offices worldwide provide a comprehensive service. In addition to financial experts, project developers, investors, and educational institutions, the company’s clients include national governments, as well as local and regional administrations. Moreover, King Sturge provides comprehensive expertise for market analyses. With offices in Frankfurt am Main and Berlin, King Sturge is committed to a sustainable growth course on the German service market" ( CS della Società).
Allegato: grafici
King Sturge Real Estate Economy Index Executive Information Human Ressources Development.pdf
Indicators.pdf
Expectations.pdf
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