Diffuso l'ultimo numero del Rapporto Global Economics: Lehman Brothers ritiene , in sintesi, che « there is a 35% chance of a recession in the UK within the next two years . By the end of next year, house prices are expected to be 8% lower than at their peak in Q4 2007 . Lehman has revised down its 2009 GDP growth forecast significantly,from 2% to 1.1%. Its 2008 forecast is unchanged at 1.7% .The risk that the UK economy could follow the US into recession warrants more aggressive action by the Bank of England. Lehman expects one 25bp cut in the Bank rate roughly every three months, with rates bottoming out at 4% in the middle of 2009». (CS della Società)
|